Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (2024)

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — As the sun set Wednesday with Penn State on the practice field, all the tell-tale signs of Saturday’s importance came into focus.

Fox’s “Big Noon Saturday” stage was already being erected across the street from Beaver Stadium. In front of the stadium’s student section entrance, the November chill was met by several Nittanyville campers whose tents were already in place. They’re doing so to ensure they can secure the best seats possible for the showdown between No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 Penn State.

Advertisement

Next will come the RVs, the weekend revelers and surely quite a few folks decked out in maize and blue, too. High-stakes November football in the Big Ten is upon us, and a game that’s been circled all offseason is here.

Yet again, we find Penn State facing a familiar situation.

The Nittany Lions are 8-1 with a loss to Ohio State. They have a golden opportunity to save their season-long goals, should they pull off the win against Michigan. Or they’ll face another offseason of questions about what to make of a season in which they didn’t beat Ohio State or Michigan, teams Penn State is a combined 4-15 against since James Franklin arrived in 2014. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten either Big Ten East power since a win against Michigan during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

This town, this fan base and even those elsewhere rooting against Michigan — many likely fed up with the Wolverines as Michigan awaits potential punishment from the scouting and sign-stealing scandal — will come unglued with a Penn State win. The pent-up frustrations from big-game shortcomings amid a relatively successful period otherwise will lead to pandemonium.

Players know how big Saturday is, even if Franklin said time and time again it’s about sticking to the process that’s gotten the program this far.

“A lot of people around the country believe that Penn State is unable to take the next step,” cornerback Kalen King said. “I feel like this game is the perfect opportunity for us to go out and prove ourselves against a powerhouse team like Michigan.”

GO DEEPERThe Detroit twins Penn State is counting on to stop Michigan: 'We watched them all the time'

There’s also the mountain of evidence that points to Penn State all too often flatlining in marquee matchups.

Penn State is 3-16 against AP top-10 opponents under Franklin, including 2-7 when ranked in the top 10 itself. Those aren’t the kinds of facts that inspire confidence for Saturday. Even since the surprise 2016 Big Ten title season, Penn State is a modest 13-18 against AP-ranked teams.

Advertisement

Last I checked, no team hangs banners for keeping games close or for consistently covering the spread. Yes, Penn State has put up respectable showings in many of the star-studded showdowns, but it has also yet to break through and reach an elite level on a consistent basis.

That’s not to say Penn State hasn’t achieved a lot of success during Franklin’s tenure. It has four seasons with at least 10 wins and appearances in four New Year’s Six bowl games. Another double-digit win total and New Year’s Six bid is feasible again regardless of what happens Saturday. But true signature moments — the enthralling field-stormings and dramatic scenes after upending an elite foe — have been few and far between.

Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (2)

Penn State lost 41-17 to Playoff-bound Michigan last year. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

Go back further, and Penn State has just six top-10 wins in the 21st century. That’s the same number as Purdue, Iowa State and Pitt. Ohio State has 33. Penn State is also 1-6 against top-10 Michigan teams — losing each of the past six matchups, with four by at least 24 points, after winning in 1994.

Before Penn State stepped off the field in Columbus last month, many fans had already hit their boiling point. It was looking like this would be more of the same in a season that was expected to be better than the past few. Fans are longing to celebrate wins against marquee opponents again, as the flood of people on the Beaver Stadium field and in the streets downtown after upsetting No. 2 Ohio State in 2016 is starting to feel like a distant memory.

GO DEEPERSnyder: It was time for Penn State and James Franklin to take next step, and they punted

This heap of statistics before and during Franklin’s tenure is why a win against Michigan would be monumental. Whether or not Penn State can generate enough offense and ride an elite defense past a Michigan team that may be even more complete and talented than its back-to-back Big Ten title winners is the question that will hang over Happy Valley until kickoff.

Advertisement

Given the amount of chaos a Penn State victory could cause in the College Football Playoff race and the convoluted Big Ten division tiebreaker scenarios that would come into play, Penn State can go from potentially missing out on a New Year’s Six bowl bid if it loses to having a shot at playing in the conference title game and punching a ticket to the program’s first CFP if it wins.

For those sleeping outside the stadium this week to those tuning in around the globe on Saturday, so much hangs in the balance. Saturday offers Penn State the possibility that this season could still be different and become special.

Penn State vs. AP top-10 opponents

YearTeamResultOpp RkPSU Rk

2023

L, 20-12

3

7

2022

Utah

W, 35-21

7

9

2022

L, 44-31

2

13

2022

Michigan

L, 41-17

5

10

2021

Michigan

L, 21-17

9

23

2021

L, 33-24

5

20

2021

Iowa

L, 23-20

3

4

2020

L, 38-25

3

18

2019

L, 28-17

2

9

2018

Michigan

L, 42-7

5

14

2018

L, 27-26

4

9

2017

L, 39-38

6

2

2016

L, 52-49

9

5

2016

W, 38-31

6

8

2016

W, 24-21

2

NR

2016

Michigan

L, 49-10

4

NR

2015

L, 55-16

6

NR

2015

L, 38-10

1

NR

2014

L, 34-10

10

NR

2013

L, 63-14

4

NR

2012

L, 35-23

9

NR

2011

L, 27-11

3

23

2010

L, 38-14

8

NR

2010

L, 24-3

1

18

2008

L, 38-24

5

6

2008

W, 13-6

10

3

2007

L, 37-17

1

24

2006

Michigan

L, 17-10

4

NR

2006

L, 28-6

1

24

2006

L, 41-17

4

19

2005

W, 17-10

6

16

2004

L, 20-13

9

NR

2003

L, 21-20

8

NR

2002

L, 13-7

4

18

2002

W, 40-7

8

NR

2001

L, 33-7

2

NR

(Top photo: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (40)Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (41)

Audrey Snyder has covered Penn State since 2012 for various outlets, including The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Patriot-News and DKPittsburghSports. Snyder is an active member of the Association for Women in Sports Media (AWSM) and is the professional adviser for Penn State’s student chapter. Follow Audrey on Twitter @audsnyder4

Snyder: There's no overstating what's at stake for Penn State against Michigan (2024)

FAQs

What was Penn State ranked when they played Michigan? ›

The 2022 contest saw both teams ranked in the top ten, as No. 5 Michigan and No. 10 Penn State both entered with 5–0 records. After a close first half in which the teams traded leads, Penn State led 17–16 early in the second half.

Did Michigan beat Penn State 24 15 on Saturday? ›

Without Jim Harbaugh, No. 2 Michigan grinds past No. 9 Penn State with 32 straight runs in 24-15 win.

What are the chances of Michigan winning? ›

Michigan National Championship Odds

The Wolverines national championship odds are +2500. National Championship Favorites: Georgia: +300. Ohio State: +325.

What are the odds of Penn State winning the football playoffs? ›

Penn State, however, is among the favorites to make the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions are -142 at FanDuel to make their first CFP. And, as they did last year, the Nittany Lions sit squarely on the 9.5-win total. FanDuel favors Penn State (at -172) to go over 9.5 wins.

Did Michigan State lose 42 0 to Penn State? ›

No. 11 Penn State wore down the Spartans' defense with time-consuming drives early, squelched MSU's offense all Friday night and then pulled away for a 42-0 victory. It was the second shutout of the season for Spartans (4-8, 2-7 Big Ten), who also lost 49-0 to Michigan on Oct.

Where will Penn State be ranked? ›

Penn State ranks 28th among national public universities and 60th overall out of 435 national universities listed in U.S. News World Report's “Best Colleges” ranking for 2024.

Has Michigan ever been ranked 1? ›

Michigan went undefeated in 1997. Overall, the Michigan defense only allowed 9.5 points per game and ended the season ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, giving Michigan its first national championship since 1948 with a victory in the 1998 Rose Bowl.

Has Penn State ever beaten Michigan? ›

From 1995 to 1999, the two teams met yearly as ranked opponents. In 1995, the lower-ranked No. 19 Penn State defeated No. 12 Michigan in Beaver Stadium by a score of 27-17.

How many times did Michigan run the ball against Penn State? ›

Michigan ran the ball 46 times, including its first 19 plays of the second half. That was a departure from the balanced offense Michigan has displayed all season, but it was the right move on a day when the Wolverines were struggling to protect quarterback J.J. McCarthy and Penn State was struggling to score.

Did Jim Harbaugh travel to Penn State? ›

That means Harbaugh, who traveled with the Wolverines to State College, Pennsylvania, will not be able to coach No. 3 Michigan in a key Big Ten East clash against No. 10 Penn State.

What bowl game is most likely for Penn State? ›

The Peach Bowl remains Penn State's most-projected destination as college football nears championship weekend, which still could impact where the Nittany Lions finish their season.

Is Penn State or Michigan State harder to get into? ›

Admission
AdmissionMichigan StatePenn State
Acceptance Rate88%55.2%
Enrolled %21%19.5%
Avg High School GPA3.72-
Typical High School GradesA--
9 more rows

What are the odds of Michigan beating Washington? ›

ESPN Analytics give the Wolverines a 74.3% chance to win the National Championship this year. Washington has a 25.7% chance to win according to the same model.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Stevie Stamm

Last Updated:

Views: 5625

Rating: 5 / 5 (80 voted)

Reviews: 87% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Stevie Stamm

Birthday: 1996-06-22

Address: Apt. 419 4200 Sipes Estate, East Delmerview, WY 05617

Phone: +342332224300

Job: Future Advertising Analyst

Hobby: Leather crafting, Puzzles, Leather crafting, scrapbook, Urban exploration, Cabaret, Skateboarding

Introduction: My name is Stevie Stamm, I am a colorful, sparkling, splendid, vast, open, hilarious, tender person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.